Insight

When the rules keep changing, what does it take to lead?

Try leading a global team right now.

One week it’s tariffs. The next, it’s sanctions. A month later, your key supplier is caught in a trade dispute you didn’t see coming. It’s not just complexity, its unpredictability layered on uncertainty, wrapped in geopolitical tension.

Take Europe. Between the UK-EU realignment, EU-US digital trade disputes, shifting China relations and stalled WTO reform, trade policy is not a backdrop, it’s centre stage.

And it’s not just Europe. Global fragmentation is on the rise. According to the IMF, the number of new trade restrictions has tripled since 2019. Supply chain alliances are becoming more regional, less global. Meanwhile, business leaders are expected to maintain continuity, trust and performance in a context that no longer plays by the old rules.

Here’s the truth: This isn’t a temporary disruption. It’s a new era of fluid advantage, where market positions shift not because of strategy alone, but because of politics, policy and power.

We’ve been here before, but this is different

If this feels familiar, it should. In 2008, the global financial crisis rewrote the rules of risk. In 2020, the pandemic did the same for resilience. Now, trade and economic realignment are testing the idea of stability itself.

But unlike past crises, this one isn’t a shockwave. It’s a slow, steady erosion of predictability.

The World Bank predicts global trade growth will average just 2.3% in the coming years, half the rate of the previous two decades. Over 60% of global CEOs say geopolitical uncertainty is their top external risk (PwC Global CEO Survey, 2024).

The result? Leaders are being asked to drive strategy in fog, not daylight.

The real leadership challenge is emotional, not just strategic

In times like this, the hardest part isn’t the spreadsheets. It’s the space between the lines:

• The anxiety of not knowing which regulation might redraw your business model;
• The resentment from teams navigating conflicting local and global expectations;
• The fatigue of adapting, again and again, without a clear endpoint.

These emotional undercurrents can derail even the most competent leaders, because they chip away at confidence and clarity, just when both are needed most.

But there’s a path forward: lead for conditions, not certainty

High performing leaders in complex environments do something different. They stop waiting for clarity and start leading for conditions. That means

• Anchoring your teams in what doesn’t change. When the context shifts weekly, your values become your strategy. Clarity around purpose, principles and priorities isn’t “nice to have”, it’s the ballast that keeps people steady.
• Making ambiguity a shared problem, not a private burden. When leaders fake certainty, trust erodes. When they name uncertainty, and invite sense making, it builds cohesion. Vulnerability here isn’t weakness. It’s wisdom.
• Building an “elastic” strategy. Not the 5-year plan. The 5-week rhythm. The capacity to flex, reframe, and re-route without losing momentum. McKinsey calls this “decision velocity”, and it’s becoming a predictor of performance.

Here’s what it looks like in practice

Emotional Anchors That Help:

• Reframing volatility as growth in disguise;
• Celebrating adaptability, not just outcomes;
• Centering decisions in shared purpose, not shifting data.

Emotional Triggers That Derail:

• “We just need to wait until things settle down.” (They won’t.)
• “Let’s not talk about the uncertainty too much, it’ll scare people.” (They already feel it.)
• “We can’t act without a clear answer.” (But clarity often comes after action.)

Let’s end on this

Every era has its existential test. In 2009 it was liquidity. In 2020 it was health. Today it’s stability, and our ability to lead without it.

But leaders don’t need to have all the answers. They need to build teams that can move forward without them. That’s the job now.

What we see is this: the most successful organisations aren’t chasing control. They’re cultivating capacity, emotional, strategic and systemic, to thrive in motion.

Because this isn’t a moment to wait out complexity.

It’s a moment to meet it,with courage, clarity and a better way of working.